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outcomes. We first consider how prior outcomes are combined with the potential payoffs offered by current choices. We propose an editing rule to describe how. Gambling with the House Money and Trying to Break Even: The Effects of. Prior Outcomes on Risky Choice. Richard H. Thaler, Eric J. Johnson. Management. We'll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling.